Canada · 14 towns compared
Northern lights in Canada: tonight’s chance
Canada holds more of the auroral oval than any other country, yet most Canadians live along its southern edge, where a storm is still needed.
Tonight at Edmonton, AB
…
Reading the SWPC Kp forecast and the cloud forecast…
| Kp forecast during the dark hours | not yet forecast |
|---|---|
| Kp needed here | 2.9 |
| Cloud cover in the dark hours | loading |
| Dark sky (Sun 18° down) | 8:37 PM to 6:03 AM MDT |
| Moon | 13% lit |
| Right now, OVATION (30 to 90 min) | loading or unavailable |
| Magnetic latitude (AACGM) | 60.2° |
Hour by hour, MDT
7 PM
Kp –
– ☁
No
8 PM
Kp –
– ☁
No
9 PM
Kp –
– ☁
No
10 PM
Kp –
– ☁
No
11 PM
Kp –
– ☁
No
12 AM
Kp –
– ☁
No
1 AM
Kp –
– ☁
No
2 AM
Kp –
– ☁
No
3 AM
Kp –
– ☁
No
4 AM
Kp –
– ☁
No
5 AM
Kp –
– ☁
No
6 AM
Kp –
– ☁
No
Rules checked · Built by Radif Partners · How the answer works
- Kp to see it from Edmonton
- 2.9
- Storm level needed
- no storm
- Kp for aurora overhead
- 2.9
- Most clear dark hours
- January
How big a storm Canada needs depends almost entirely on which part of the country you stand in. Yellowknife, at 68.5 degrees magnetic latitude in the AACGM model, needs no storm at all: the oval often sits overhead; Whitehorse needs about Kp 1.4 and Edmonton about Kp 2.9, both below storm level. The prairie capitals stay close to that: Winnipeg needs about Kp 3.7 and Calgary about Kp 4.2. Then the thresholds jump for the cities where most people live: Vancouver needs Kp 5.8, a G2 (Moderate) storm, Montreal about Kp 6.3, Toronto Kp 6.5, a G2 (Moderate) storm and Halifax about Kp 6.9. In Edmonton, where the tool opens, the sky never reaches full darkness from May to July, while mid-December brings 12.1 dark hours. NASA POWER averages there run from 56% cloud amount in July to 76% in November, so January, December and February give the most clear dark hours. Type any Canadian town: clouds come from the MET Norway forecast.
A country cut in two by the oval
Draw the auroral oval on a map of North America on a quiet night and it crosses Canada diagonally, from the Yukon over Great Slave Lake to Hudson Bay and northern Quebec. Everything north of that line sees the aurora on clear nights almost by default; everything south of it waits for the oval to swell. Yellowknife is on the near side of that line, 8.4 degrees of magnetic latitude north of Edmonton. Toronto is on the far side, 7.7 degrees south of Edmonton, which is why the same quiet night can be a vivid show over the Territories and nothing at all over Lake Ontario.
The geography of the magnetic pole adds a twist. The pole sits over the Canadian Arctic, north of the prairies, so the oval reaches lower over Manitoba and Alberta than over British Columbia. Vancouver lies south of Calgary by only 1.8 degrees on the map, yet needs about 1.7 Kp more.
What Kp does this town need?
Kp to see aurora from here
3.7
| Magnetic latitude (AACGM) | 58.7° |
| Kp for aurora overhead | 3.7 |
| Storm level | no storm needed |
| How often that level comes | most active nights |
View line: the more southern of the SWPC oval rule and the NOAA G scale latitudes at each Kp.
Prairie skies against Great Lakes cloud
The interior of the continent has drier winter air than the coasts. Arctic high pressure settles over Saskatchewan and Manitoba for days at a time and leaves long, cold, clear nights, which is exactly when the aurora is easiest to catch. The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence corridor have the opposite problem: lake effect cloud in early winter and grey Atlantic systems later, so Toronto and Montreal often lose a storm to overcast even when Kp gets high enough. On the Pacific side, Vancouver faces winter fronts and a wall of mountains to the north. For the prairie case, the Winnipeg page explains it in detail; for the east, see Ottawa.
Parks with a dark horizon
Getting away from the light dome of a large city matters more than a few degrees of latitude when you are close to your threshold. Parks Canada manages Jasper National Park in the Rockies as a dark sky preserve and calls it the second largest in the world. From Alberta, a clear night in the park at Kp 2.9 or more has a real chance, though valley walls can hide the lowest part of the northern sky, so lake shores and wide valley floors work best. Farther north, the Yellowknife page covers the city that sits under the oval itself, and the Alaska page the same belt across the border.
Kp needed across Canada
| Town | Magnetic latitude | Kp to see it | Kp overhead | Storm level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellowknife | 68.5° | 0.0 | 0.0 | no storm |
| Whitehorse | 63.3° | 1.4 | 1.4 | no storm |
| Edmonton | 60.2° | 2.9 | 2.9 | no storm |
| Saskatoon | 59.8° | 3.1 | 3.1 | no storm |
| Winnipeg | 58.7° | 3.7 | 3.7 | no storm |
| Regina | 58.5° | 3.8 | 3.8 | no storm |
| Calgary | 57.7° | 4.2 | 4.2 | no storm |
| Quebec City | 54.4° | 5.8 | 5.8 | G2 (Moderate) |
| Vancouver | 54.3° | 5.8 | 5.8 | G2 (Moderate) |
| Ottawa | 53.7° | 6.1 | 6.1 | G2 (Moderate) |
| Montreal | 53.5° | 6.3 | 6.3 | G2 (Moderate) |
| Toronto | 52.5° | 6.5 | 6.8 | G2 (Moderate) |
| St. John's | 51.0° | 6.8 | 7.5 | G3 (Strong) |
| Halifax | 50.6° | 6.9 | 7.7 | G3 (Strong) |
Darkness and clouds by month in Edmonton
| Month | Dark hours | Dark sky, 15th | Mean cloud | Clear dark hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 11.7 h | 7:52 PM to 7:34 AM | 71% | 3.4 h |
| February | 10.2 h | 8:42 PM to 6:53 AM | 69% | 3.2 h |
| March | 8.2 h | 9:36 PM to 5:48 AM | 72% | 2.3 h |
| April | 5.3 h | 10:54 PM to 4:12 AM | 69% | 1.7 h |
| May | none | – | 63% | 0.0 h |
| June | none | – | 65% | 0.0 h |
| July | none | – | 56% | 0.0 h |
| August | 4.0 h | 11:39 PM to 3:38 AM | 58% | 1.7 h |
| September | 7.2 h | 9:52 PM to 5:06 AM | 60% | 2.9 h |
| October | 9.5 h | 8:33 PM to 6:06 AM | 68% | 3.0 h |
| November | 11.3 h | 7:39 PM to 6:58 AM | 76% | 2.7 h |
| December | 12.1 h | 7:25 PM to 7:33 AM | 72% | 3.3 h |